Business
Consulting and e-commerce analytics work, with client details redacted.
A Fresh Number Is a Wrong Number.Amazon ad conversions keep attributing for about 9 days after a report is pulled, so every fresh pull understates sales by 15 to 19%.
The Ad Budget Can't Overspend. It's Built That Way.A hard daily ceiling with campaign caps summing exactly to it makes overspend structurally impossible, no platform spend cap required.
Four Independent Forecasts, One Reconciled PlanAn H2 revenue forecast built four separate ways (YoY momentum, re-seasonalized run rate, traffic x conversion x price, 9-year trend), ensembled with a low/high envelope, and reconciled across data sources within 0.4%.
Growth Fell in a Clean Staircase. Price Increases Hid It.Monthly YoY for an Amazon 1P account fell from +15.3% to -2.7% in a straight line, and price masked the units decline for months.
Wholesale Wasn't Falling Faster Than Demand. Amazon Was Selling Down Its Own Stock.An 8 to 10 point gap between retail sell-through and wholesale sell-in traced to a one-time Amazon inventory correction, not to demand.